Introduction: A short history of statistics in the law
1. Descriptive statistics: Data types, location and dispersion
- Types of data
- Populations and samples
- Distributions and their representation
- Location
- Dispersion
- Hierarchies of variation
2. Probability and probability distributions
- Definitions of probability
- Conditional probability and Bayes Theorem
- Random variables
- Probability distribution (Binomial, Poisson, Normal)
- Empirical probabilities
- Modelled empirical probabilities
- Truly empirical probabilities
3. Statistical Inference
- Paradigms for inference
- Estimation theory
- Point Estimation
- Interval Estimation
- Statistical hypothesis testing
4. Measures of association
- Measures of nominal and ordinal association
- Correlation
- Regression
5. Evidence evaluation
- Forensic Evidences types
- The value of evidence
- Significance testing and evidence evaluation
- Relevance and the formulation of propositions
6. Evaluation of evidence in practice and example
- Which database to use
- Type and geographic factors
- DNA and database selection
- Verbal equivalence of the likelihood ratio
- Some common criticisms of statistical approaches
- Blood group frequencies
- Trouser fibres
- Shoe types
- Airweapon projectiles
- Height description from eyewitness
- DNA
7. Errors in interpretation
Statistically based errors of interpretation (Transposed conditional;
Defender’s fallacy; Numerical conversion error)
Methodological errors of interpretation
Different level error
Defendant’s database fallacy
Independence assumption